Introduction
Daily bias is one of the most popular and most misunderstood topics in trading. Many traders overcomplicate it, flip-flop their bias too often, or fail to see how straightforward it really is. In this post, we’ll walk through how to set your daily bias using higher timeframes, simple points of interest, and conditional thinking that keeps you disciplined throughout the week.
What Daily Bias Really Means
At its core, daily bias is just the directional expectation you carry into the session. For example, you may identify a bearish daily breaker or a weekly fair value gap and decide to look for shorts until price invalidates that bias. It doesn’t mean you predict every candle—it’s about framing your trades in line with where the higher timeframe points of interest are.
Using Higher Timeframes to Anchor Your Bias
Start with the weekly chart. Mark out fair value gaps, breakers, and significant candles.
Drop to the daily chart. Look for confirming points of interest such as breakers or small gaps inside the weekly context.
Use alerts. If price trades into or above/below your marked zones, you’ll know when to prepare.
For instance, if NASDAQ is sitting inside a weekly candle body and a daily breaker, that may give you a short bias for the week. But if Wednesday closes strongly above the breaker, your bias flips to long for Thursday and Friday.
The Role of Invalidation
A strong bias doesn’t mean stubbornness. Invalidation keeps you flexible:
If price closes above your breaker, stop looking for shorts.
If price rejects your level with displacement, continue with your original plan.
This “if this happens, then I do that” approach removes the guessing and gives you structure.
Simple Targets
Once bias is set, the easiest way to frame trades is by identifying “low hanging fruit”:
Relative equal highs or lows.
Untapped fair value gaps.
Obvious inefficiencies waiting to be rebalanced.
The best trades come from aligning your bias with these nearby targets.
Don’t Overtrade the Counter Move
Often, the early-week move sets up the higher probability opportunity later. For example, Monday and Tuesday may drift higher with no displacement, setting up a short into Wednesday or Thursday once liquidity is swept. You don’t have to chase every small move—sometimes the most profitable action is waiting for the market to come to your level.
Practical Framework for Daily Bias
Mark weekly and daily points of interest every Sunday.
Decide on a primary bias (bullish or bearish) based on those levels.
Define your invalidation—what has to happen for bias to flip.
Use alerts to stay patient until price trades into your levels.
Limit yourself to a small set of pairs or markets (e.g., NQ, ES, oil, gold).
Final Thoughts
Daily bias doesn’t have to be complicated. Keep it simple, wait for price to reach meaningful levels, and don’t flip-flop unless invalidation forces you to. By sticking with a few instruments and applying a consistent framework, you’ll remove confusion and trade with more confidence.