Introduction
One of the best things about trading is flexibility. You can trade at home, while traveling, or halfway around the world — all you need is your strategy and your setup. In this recap, I’ll walk through how I made $4,400 shorting ES futures, the thought process behind my entry, what I did wrong on my first attempt, and how I managed to recover and double up on the second.
Trade Setup and Context
Heading into the session, ES had already sold off overnight. I wasn’t ready to flip bullish yet, because key bearish levels were still holding. On the hourly, there were fair value gaps I wanted to see price respect before considering longs. Until then, the bias was bearish.
My first attempt was a short inside one of these hourly fair value gaps. I spotted a wick rejection and took an early entry, but my stop wasn’t placed properly. Combined with poor execution from being tired, that trade stopped out. Losing focus from lack of sleep is something I’ve noticed affects my decision-making, and it played a role here.
Second Entry and Execution
The second trade came later, around 10am, when I expected an expansion move down. I shorted at 6410 with my stop just above the structure and targeted the prior lows. By this time, NQ was also selling off, which gave added conviction.
The trade produced strong displacement to the downside, confirming the bearish bias. Relative equal lows on the daily chart gave me confidence that liquidity targets below would get run. I sold into that weakness, banking a 3.2R trade that recovered my initial loss and put me up $4,400 net.
I had considered adding more size on a breaker retest, but the starter position with proper risk-to-reward was enough to meet my goals.
Key Lessons
Let structure guide your bias: The daily and hourly levels showed weakness, so shorts had higher probability.
Respect risk management: Even after the first stop-out, I kept sizing controlled and positioned for a strong R-multiple on the second.
Timing matters: Waiting for the 10am expansion was crucial — that was when volatility aligned with my setup.
Don’t chase wicks: Liquidity runs and weak rejections aren’t always entries unless displacement confirms them.
Looking Ahead
The bigger picture for ES depends on how price closes relative to the daily fair value gap. A close below could set up a low-of-week scenario going into Tuesday. With NFP and multiple news events this week, I’ll be more selective, skipping Tuesday and Thursday while focusing on Friday’s setup for “one shot, one kill.”
Final Thoughts
This trade is a reminder of the importance of patience, structure, and execution. Even when the first attempt doesn’t work, sticking to risk rules and waiting for the higher-probability setup allows you to come back stronger. With proper risk-to-reward, one good trade can cover mistakes and still deliver meaningful profits.